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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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