Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
